Inspired by Slate Star Codex predictions.

You can see my results for 2018.

Timestamped checksum of this post is referenced here.

World events

  • North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 99%
  • No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 80%
  • …in any First World country: 80%
  • Assad will remain President of Syria: 95%
  • Syria’s civil war will not end this year: 70%
  • ISIS not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria: 50%
  • Ukraine will neither break into all-out war or get neatly resolved: 95%
  • No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in Europe: 99%
  • No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world: 99%

Europe

  • No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan to leave: 80%
  • France does not declare plan to leave EU: 99%
  • Germany does not declare plan to leave EU: 99%
  • Fewer refugees admitted 2019 than 2018: 95%

Economics

  • Bitcoin will not end the year higher than $20000: 99%
  • Bitcoin will end the year lower than $10000: 80%
  • Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 90%
  • Dow Jones will fall < 5% this year: 80%
  • Dow Jones will fall > 5% this year: 60%

Czech Republic

  • Miloš Zeman remains President at the end of 2019: 70%
  • Czech GDP growth lower than in 2018: 80%
  • Czech unemployment to be lower at end of year than beginning: 60% Q3 2018, 2.3%
  • Czech Republic will not decide to leave EU: 80%
  • Czech Republic will not decide to leave NATO: 95%
  • No major flood in Prague (>3000 m^3/s): 90%
  • No flood in Prague (>1000 m^3/s): 80%
  • Andrej Babiš will be Czech prime minister by the end of 2019: 70%
  • Andrej Babiš’s government will be voted credible: 70%

Personal

  • I will travel inside the (continental) Europe only in 2018: 60%
  • I will not have been hospitalized: 95%
  • I will not attend a wedding this year: 60%
  • I will not use proprietary social network application: 90%
  • I will have run at least 300 km in 2019: 80%

Notes

Using the same model as before (I used the results to adjust previous percentage, estimate) and filtering only up to date claims. No news statements were added.