Inspired by Slate Star Codex predictions.

Timestamped checksum of this post is referenced here.

Updated on 2019-01-07 with predictions assessment.

World events

  • North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 99%
    • true
  • No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 80%
    • true
  • …in any First World country: 80%
  • Assad will remain President of Syria: 80%
    • true
  • Syria’s civil war will not end this year: 70%
    • true
  • ISIS will control less territory than it does right now. Unmeasurable.
  • ISIS not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria: 60%
    • false
  • Ukraine will neither break into all-out war or get neatly resolved: 80%
    • true
  • No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in Europe: 99% educated guess
  • No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world: 99% educated guess

Europe

  • No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan to leave: 80%
    • true
  • France does not declare plan to leave EU: 99%
    • true
  • Germany does not declare plan to leave EU: 99%
    • true
  • Fewer refugees admitted 2018 than 2017: 80%

Economics

  • Bitcoin will end the year higher than $20000: 99%
    • false (it was around $3935)
  • Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 99%
    • true (felt by 1-23327.46/24719.22 ~ 5.6%)
  • Dow Jones will rise > 5% this year: 99%
    • false
  • Dow Jones will rise > 10% this year: 80%
    • false

Czech Republic

  • Miloš Zeman remains President at the end of 2018: 60%
    • true
  • Miloš Zeman will be elected in the second round: 80%
    • true
  • Czech GDP growth lower than in 2017: 60%
  • Czech unemployment to be lower at end of year than beginning: 60% (Q3 2017, 2.8%)
  • Czech Republic will not decide to leave EU: 80%
    • true
  • Czech Republic will not decide to leave NATO: 99%
    • true
  • No major flood in Prague (>3000 m^3/s): 90%
    • true
  • No flood in Prague (>1000 m^3/s): 80%
    • true
  • Andrej Babiš will be Czech prime minister by the end of 2018: 80%
    • true
  • Andrej Babiš’s government will be voted credible: 70%
    • true

Personal

  • I will travel inside the Europe only in 2018: 90%
    • undefined (what is Europe)
  • I will not have been hospitalized: 95%
    • true
  • I attend at least one wedding this year: 60%
    • false
  • I will not use proprietary social network application: 90%
    • true
  • I will have run 10 km under 46 minutes in 2018: 90%
    • false
  • I will have run 10 km under 44 minutes in 2018: 60%
    • false
  • I will not have run 10 km under 42 minutes in 2018: 90%
    • true

Notes

I don’t think the calibration based on grouping different events by their probability is correct, despite that I quantized most of the probabilities. I may devise a better method by the end of the year.

Secondly, picking the statements myself would be biased that’s why I adapted the SCC ones.